Forecast and Decision Method Research

Release Date: 2017-09-21

Course Name	Forecast and Decision Method Research					Course Code
Course Semester	1		Course Time		36		Credit	2
Course Type	√ Obligatory Courses □ Elective Courses
Institute	College of Economics and Trade			Applicable Major	Quantitative Economics
Assessment method	√ Examination □ Test
Advanced courses	Calculus， Statistics， Accounting
Teacher	Li Hong
Teaching Objectives
Through the study of this course, students are required to: (1) master all kinds of forecasting and decision-making methods, application conditions, situations, applied to the practice of market economy; (2) realize the object of our study is the forecast and decision-making process - complex operations, including the application of SPSS, the TSP and EXCEL software; (3) Understand the development of statistical forecasting and decision-making. Through teaching the course, to cultivate the students' practical ability, in gathering data in large social surveys, grouping, sorting abilities, comprehensive quantitative analysis of basic data .
Teaching Contents
In many cases，we cannot make scientific predictions, and decision- making must be made on the basis of incomplete observations, and estimates made through reliable indicators.. This course introduces the qualitative prediction methods, including the Delphi method, the subjective probability method, situational method and other methods of qualitative prediction, Secondly it introduces regression prediction method, including a yuan linear regression prediction method, multiple linear regression and nonlinear regression forecasting method; Time series forecasting method, including the trend extrapolation method, time series prediction method, etc. Finally introduces various decision-making methods, including risk decision-making method, uncertainty decision methods and the multi-objective decision-making method.
Outline Designer		Li Hong			Date